Honda

Amidst the ongoing controversy over the little known Comet Elenin, a more likely suspect for an ELE (Extinction Level Event) has been left relatively untouched. Comet 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova is projected to reach aphelion (closest orbital distance to earth) in mid-August 2011, with an estimated proximity to earth of 0.06 A.U (astronomical unit), or approximately 9 million kilometers, the closest since comet D/1770 L1 (Lexell) in 1770 and C/1983 H1 (IRAS-Araki-Alcock) in 1983.

The 45P/Honda was first discovered on December 3 1948 by Minoru Honda, an amateur astronomer from Japan. The 45P/Honda is believed to have a diameter of 1.6km, which is significantly larger than both Lexell and IRAS-Araki-Alcock. It follows an elliptical, five and a quarter years orbit around our Sun commencing from the Ophiuchus constellation at the Galactic Equator. The 45P/Honda has a perihelion (closest orbital distance to the Sun) of 0.58A.U, which will occur on September 30 this year.

With the exception of 1954 and 1990, the 45P/Honda’s aphelion has become increasingly closer to earth, as shown below.
Year

Aphelion (in A.U)
1948

0.43
1954

0.59
1969

0.30
1975

0.23
1983

0.11
1990

0.29
1996

0.17
2001

0.11
2006

0.09
2011

0.058

Another interesting aspect of 45P/Honda is its forecasted flyby with Comet Elenin. They will cross path approximately around October 8 this year. Here is a trajectory animation of comets Elenin and 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova.